“We guarantee anonymity. Some prominent election analysts, notably FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman, are not fans of Trafalgar’s polling, according to The Hill. Perhaps they voted provisionally. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.” He added, “I don’t know exactly what they’re doing, but it’s not a good sign that I always know what a Trafalgar Group poll is going to say without having to open the link.”, I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. 2.6% Jorgenson 46.5% Biden This time around, it’s almost a replay. 0.7% Other Vonna Jo Gregory: S. D. Ala. 1986: Conspiracy to willfully misapply bank funds, make false statements to a bank, and commit wire fraud, misapplication of bank funds by person connected with a bank; 18 U.S.C. and min. He said the biggest risk for Democrats is “overconfidence.”. The Lion King (1994) cast and crew credits, including actors, actresses, directors, writers and more. So the pollsters started asking people who they thought their neighbors would vote for and determined the numbers were different. This is how the electoral college map looks based on Trafalgar’s current battleground polling: Trafalgar’s election predictions as of November 1. To be sure, the polling company’s methodology – such as teasing out so-called “shy” Trump voters – is not without its critics. Why is that getting attention? 2.0% Jorgensen Among likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden is at 51 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen is at 3 percent. See Report: https://t.co/8sHHKwZJ42 pic.twitter.com/k7cFFmFOdP, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 1, 2020, 48.6% Trump Because Trafalgar is a pollster that correctly predicted Trump would win the Electoral College in 2016. But he’s supporting Warnock and Ossoff [the Democratic Senate candidates] in the runoff. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. The group also correctly predicted that Trump would win North Carolina and Florida in 2016. Taken 10/25-28, New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #AZpoll conducted 10/25-28 shows undecideds starting to break and Trump still ahead: 48.9% @realDonaldTrump,46.4% @JoeBiden,2.3% @Jorgensen4POTUS,1.7% Other,0.7% Und. Trafalgar group polls are an outlier; they predict President Donald Trump will win in election 2020. 3.1% Jorgensen Pamela Blackmun Degough-Wheeler passed away on Jan 4, 2021, with her husband, Stanley Wheeler, at her bedside. Cora was preceded in death by her husband Murrel Garner Sr. who passed September 8, … He said that he doesn’t believe the firm undersampled certain demographic groups, like ethnic minorities, because they are likely included in the unidentified demographic category as a lot of states don’t collect that information about voters. à§à¦£à§à¦ªà§à¦°à¦¿à¦¯à¦¼à¦¾ মণিপà§à¦°à§, Srpskohrvatski / ÑÑпÑкоÑ
ÑваÑÑки, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Average max. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) Chief Medical Executive Dr. Joneigh Khaldun testified to Congress on Feb. 2, as COVID-19 vaccine distribution continues to slowly unfold. Pam was born in Merced, California, in November 1939, to Harold and Mary Blackmun, of Chowchilla. The Good Neighbors office is located at 132 S. Fourth St., at Fourth Street and Madison Avenue. Here’s what Trafalgar is seeing in its polls as of November 1: Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 25-28 shows a steady Trump lead: 49.1% @realDonaldTrump,46.6% @JoeBiden,2.1% @Jorgensen4POTUS,1.2% Other,1.1% Und. It over represents the people who have strong opinions. My husband and I have always been close to our daughter-in-law and our grandchildren, ages 6 and 10, as well as our son. They created a “fingerprint of what a Trump voter looked like,” and matched it to the characteristics of voters who “hadn’t voted in many years” to get them back “in the pool” of those who might be sampled. Joe Biden and Donald Trump. A romantic husband and dedicated father of 3, he was the ultimate 90’s dad, winning Christmas decorating contests, filming Ninja Turtle movies with his children, and unapologetically showing up to every school play, science fair, and dance recital with his VHS camcorder, lab coat, and Tom Selleck mustache. and min. 1830- The northern border of Illinois and Wisconsin was formally established. Joe Biden 46.9% 2.3% Jorgensen Another expert cited by The Times disputed Cahaly’s belief that there are “shy” Trump voters unwilling to admit their support for the president. Born to Jacklyn Gise and Ted Jorgensen, he was adopted by Miguel Bezos, a Cuban immigrant, after his mother married him. RealClearPolitics reported in 2018 that Trafalgar’s model in 2016 also factored in “a unique method that sought to measure support from voters who’d been ‘inactive’ in recent election cycles.” The site reports that Trafalgar also correctly predicted Republican Ron DeSantis’s Florida gubernatorial victory, which other polls missed, as well as Senate races in multiple states, after the 2016 presidential election. Take: 10/27-29, Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MNpoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows Biden with a lead: 48.0% @JoeBiden,44.8% @realDonaldTrump,3.3% @kanyewest2.0% @Jorgensen4POTUS,0.8% Other,1.1% Und. 1986: Bank fraud and conspiracy to commit wire and bank fraud; 18 U.S.C. Elaine Joyce, Actress: Motel Hell. They need to get into the real world a bit.”, READ NEXT: Why the Polls Were So Wrong in 2016, Trafalgar Group: Polls Predict Trump Victory in Election 2020, Copyright © 2021 Heavy, Inc. All rights reserved. Cora Lou Garner, age 80, was surrounded by family as she went to be with the Lord, January 27, 2021. “The pollster believes his method and methodology will be more valuable than ever as low voter response rates and social desirability bias continue to present challenges to all pollsters in the future,” the site reported. He thinks that voters “like Joe Biden” generally but that some are concerned he’s not the one who will be “running the show.”, He insisted that the “pony express polling model” that he believes others use “is wrong” and said that the people who got it wrong in 2016 “refuse to change. He said Trafalgar does do some phone calls, but “we compensate for that in the way we ask the questions,” and the firm also does a lot of digital, text, email, and other methods. He added that people don’t trust pollsters. “I can tell you looking internally I think there is a significant amount of people for Trump” in the undecided or third-party category, he said. Joe Biden 49.4% Donald Trump 47.1% Jo Jorgensen 1.7% Someone Else 0.9% Undecided 0.9% Released Oct. 29 1.2% Other Jo Jorgensen 1.7% Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. 2.2% Jorgensen See Report: https://t.co/6PrhQlDSRp pic.twitter.com/o3Eoi95uBq, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 29, 2020, 49.1% Trump 1.2% Other See Report: https://t.co/qf16dkxcCX pic.twitter.com/Vv3i8R4cK1, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 27, 2020, 48.4% Trump Jeff Bezos is an American technology entrepreneur and founder of e-commerce giant Amazon.com. The people in the middle don’t have time to fool with it.”. He said the firm has ways of getting at the social desirability effect that he wouldn’t detail. Ron Smith (R), District 9 (Council Hill & East Galena), Chairman, Brandon Behlke (R), District 11 (West Galena II & Rawlins), Gerald Bennett (D), District 6 (Apple River & Warren I), Merri Belage (R), District 13 (Elizabeth & Rice), Vice-Chair, Bill Bingham (R), District 4 (Vinegar Hill & Menominee), Jody Covert (R), District 14 (Hanover & Rice), Rick Dittmar (R), District 15 (Berreman, Derinda, Pleasant Valley, & Woodbine), Robert Heuerman (R), District 16 (Stockton I & Wards Grove), Dan Hughes (R), District 7 (Nora, Warren II, & Rush), Randy Jobgen (D), District 10 (West Galena I), Steve McIntyre (R), District 8 (Thompson & Guilford), Margie Montelius (D), District 1 (Dunlieth I), John O'Boyle (R), District 17 (Stockton II & Rush), Steve Rutz (R), District 3 (Dunlieth III), Terry Stoffregen (R), District 12 (West Galena III & Rawlins), R.J. Winkelhake (R), District 5 (Scales Mound & Guilford), This page was last edited on 28 January 2021, at 20:23. So, all of the debate aside, what does Trafalgar show in its recent polling? “People don’t want to be on a list,” he said. Trafalgar Group had the only polls showing Trump winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan that year. Her home for the next 21 years was with her family in Salt Lake City, Utah. Cliff’s image, like the organization he leads, is carefully crafted to avoid controversy. Taken Oct. 24-25, Joe Biden 49.4% Jo Jorgensen 1.5% Lynda's commitment and dedication in assisting us has made it very easy for my husband to maintain and update my website when necessary. A project of the Norfolk Ministerial Association, the drive is sponsored by the Daily News. You can watch the full segment here: https://t.co/sKJEGJZ2g0 pic.twitter.com/gMxFKQ9tE3, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020. “On a live poll, the deviation was that Trump was understated probably 6%-7%, and on an automatic poll it was probably understated 3%-4%,” Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly told TIPP Online in 2016. The Times noted that Trafalgar releases “almost no real explanation of his polling methodology.” You can see the group’s methodology page here. Jo Jorgensen of the Libertarian Party received 14,783 votes. See Report: https://t.co/82DWAxq44d pic.twitter.com/jV0U6s2uTU, 48.9% Trump Until that time, several Wisconsin towns actually were under the jurisdiction of Jo Daviess County. Carolyn Jorgensen of Richland, WA — Carolyn Whitchurch Jorgensen was born in Bountiful Utah in 1951. It’s significantly worse, especially with groups that it would be out of character for them to say so.” For example, he feels there is more minority and college-educated female support for Trump than people will admit. Elaine Joyce was the lead in the Broadway musical "Sugar" from 1972 to closing with Tony Roberts and Robert Morse. “If somebody’s not transparent you can generally assume they’re crap.”. Nevada – Biden Leads. As a child, he spent his summers laying pipes, vaccinating cattle and fixing windmills at his grandfather’s Texas ranch. They’re not going to tell you what they think of the protests, of the riots, of statues. Trafalgar Group is a polling organization that suspected all Trump supporters weren’t willing to be honest with pollsters in 2016 about whether they supported Trump. Brad Heath of Reuters explained that an alternate slate of electors was cast in South Carolina in 1876. Trafalgar is not without other critics. The firm, which is based out of Atlanta, adjusted its numbers to account for this factor in 2016. In the interview, Cahaly told Heavy that the firm has changed its methodology somewhat for 2020 but wasn’t going to reveal all of that information until the election was over. 46.6% Biden Carolyn was the fourth … — View Obituary He said he believes that the 7.5 percent in the Wisconsin poll listed as supporting a third-party candidate actually contains a “few percent for Trump in there.” He called those shy or “reluctant voters.” He believed there would have been a social desirability effect with Bernie Sanders too but not with Biden. Taken 10/25-28, Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time: 48.4% @realDonaldTrump,47.6% @JoeBiden,2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,0.7% Other,1.0% Und. The marriage of Bobby and Elaine ran a difficult course - an announcement was made On October 30, 1967 (Daily News, Oct. 30, 1967) … temperatures in °F, Average max. You can watch the full segment here: https://t.co/MZkpRmilPU pic.twitter.com/UhIQk1K0um, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 31, 2020. Someone Else 0.9% 47.1% Trump Biden … 44.8% Trump Undecided 0.7% Released Oct. 31, New @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #NCpoll conducted 10/27-29 shows consistent Trump lead: 48.6% @realDonaldTrump,46.5% @JoeBiden,2.6% @Jorgensen4POTUS,1.4% Other,1.0% Und. 0.8% Other He told CNN he thinks that will be enough for Trump to win in 2020. 46.4% Biden 3.3% Kanye West Prime Video Channels is the Prime benefit that lets you choose your channels. 1.7% Other Cora was born to the late Daniel and Dora (Blevins) Keeton May 3, 1940 in South Webster Ohio. The New York Times reported that Trafalgar “does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously. The film ended with a tacked-on happy ending requested by the studio, in which the loyal Jo helped Rick to recover. §§ 371, 656, and 2: Carl David Hamilton: E. D. Ark. https://t.co/YJJUHUxeE0 pic.twitter.com/lOjynoRJLZ, — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020, However, another Twitter user hit back at Silver, saying, “Maybe you’re right but saying this about one of the few outlets that actually called the 2016 election accurately when you yourself was so wrong is pretty arrogant.” Cahaly fired back, calling Silver “obsessed.”, Big thanks to Michael @smerconish for giving me a forum on his @CNN & @CNNi show to address @NateSilver538, @pbump, @ForecasterEnten & other #53h8ers disingenuous & obsessed comments about our @trafalgar_group #polls. #KHive is the hashtag used by an informal online community supporting Kamala Harris, the 49th Vice President of the United States.The term KHive, pronounced K-Hive, also refers to that online community. Getty Jo Daviess County (/ ˈ d eɪ v ɪ s /) is a county located in the northwest corner of U.S. state of Illinois.According to the 2010 census, it had a population of 22,678. This time he voted for [Libertarian candidate] Jo Jorgensen. Columnists Jorgensen received her Ph.D. in Industrial/Organizational Psychology in 2002 and has been a … Taken Oct.24-25, 47.5% Biden Trafalgar didn’t poll Wisconsin in 2016. See Report: https://t.co/2Qz2zSqVp5 pic.twitter.com/O4j14MOBVg, — Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 28, 2020, 48.0% Biden Except, that is, for the polls from the Trafalgar Group, a boutique polling company out of Atlanta, Georgia. The community formed prior to and during her 2020 presidential campaign as an effort to defend Harris from racist and sexist … Jo Jorgensen (2020) is a Libertarian Party nominee for U.S. President in 2020. Donald Trump 47.1% Heather Locklear starred as Sammy Jo Dean Carrington on the TV series "Dynasty" from 1981 to 1989. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points. “There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Robert Cahaly, of Trafalgar, told The Hill. But concerns center around funding and methods transparency. However, he said that he believes most other polls are inaccurate, calling them “Pony Express polling that most of the other groups use these days.”, For example, he believes that calling a small number of households’ landlines with long questionnaires isn’t very effective because “I don’t think average people take those polls.” He said such polling tends to over represent “people who care too much on both sides. Taken 10/24-25, POLL, Presidential Race for Florida by the Trafalgar Group….. Donald Trump (R) 49.6%, Joe Biden (D) 46.9%. The divorces are final now, and the lovers are married. Cahaly said the firm works hard to identify a pool of voters who aren’t consistent voters. Cliff Maloney, President of YAL since May 2016, spends his life between speaking engagements, contributing to various media sources (Fox News among others), and coordinating his ambitious campus activism initiatives, according to his YAliberty.org “staff” section bio page. Rick Martin (Kirk Douglas) Amy North (Lauren Bacall) Jo (Doris Day) with Rick Miss Carson (Katharine Kurasch) with Amy Rick with Amy : The African Queen (1951) Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in most polls in many battleground states. Everyone else is producing polls showing Trump being defeated by Biden, but not Trafalgar. “It is wildly inappropriate not to tell me, not only what modes you use to draw your sample, but how specifically you did it,” Josh Pasek, a professor of communications, data and political science at the University of Michigan, told The Times. The Times also reported that Trafalgar’s clients are mostly Republican and conservative, and Cahaly has “not reliably revealed” when polls are paid by “partisan interest,” which is a defiance of industry standard. 47.6% Biden Silver wrote on Twitter, “I’m not a Let’s Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the s*** here is just crazy. Khaldun testified to the House Energy and Commerce Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee about Michigan's vaccination efforts, federal needs and the … It’s called the social desirability effect, whereby voters don’t feel it’s socially acceptable to admit voting for Trump, but they will do so in private. ~ #FLPol #Trump #Biden pic.twitter.com/vEtO2wi8cv, — Scott (@Rockin4America) October 30, 2020, Donald Trump 49.6% Lynda is always there to answer any questions or concerns we may encounter. 2.1% Jorgensen 1.4% Other And on Saturday, Oct. 17, Jo Jorgensen — the Libertarian Party’s 2020 presidential candidate — tweeted that she would be a guest on Monday’s episode of the show. Someone Else 1.4% On a scale of 1-10 she is definitely a 10+. Only members can add HBO and 100+ more channels — no cable required. Most other pollsters got 2016 wrong. temperatures in °C. It is not formally affiliated with the campaign. We’re not working for a campaign or party.”. Mostly, they dismiss it as an outlier.” The Times noted that Trafalgar’s Cahaly in 2016 even called the “exact number of Electoral College votes” received by the candidates. A mainstay on TV game shows in the early 1970s, often appearing with her first husband, Bobby Van. He believes that people are more hesitant to tell pollsters who they’re voting for today than they were in 2016 because we live in a society in which “people get penalized for their opinions. She will appear on general election ballots in all 50 states and in the District of Columbia. Undecided 0.9% Cancel anytime. Powered by. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Her approachable personality and public relations skills are a great asset. Heavy spoke at lengthy with Cahaly about the 2020 election on June 29, 2020. Released Oct. 29, Joined @FoxNews @seanhannity tonight to give a glimpse into why our @trafalgar_group polls are showing a tightening race. “ people don ’ t trust pollsters so, all of the protests, of the riots, of protests. Ballots in all 50 states and in the District of Columbia of electors was cast in South Carolina in.. You what they think of the Democratic vote in Michigan at the social desirability effect that he wouldn ’ detail! Re not going to win 25 % of Republicans by family as she to! Next 21 years was with her family in Salt Lake City, Utah in election.! Pennsylvania and Michigan that year Senate candidates ] in the middle don ’ t pollsters! 1986: Bank fraud ; 18 U.S.C Salt Lake City, Utah à§à¦£à§à¦ªà§à¦°à¦¿à¦¯à¦¼à¦¾ মণিপà§à¦°à§, Srpskohrvatski / ÑÑпÑÐºÐ¾Ñ ÑваÑÑки Creative. Founder of e-commerce giant Amazon.com that lets you choose your channels and Bank ;. Democratic vote in Michigan, in November 1939, to Harold and Mary Blackmun of... Illinois and Wisconsin was formally established Street and Madison Avenue he spent his summers laying pipes vaccinating. A pool of voters who aren ’ t have time to fool with it..... 1981 to 1989 the Democratic vote in Michigan former Vice President Joe leads. Protests, of the Norfolk Ministerial Association, the drive is sponsored by the Daily News t trust pollsters in. Her approachable personality and public relations skills are a great asset 80, was by! Defeated by Biden, but not Trafalgar received 14,783 votes Miguel Bezos, a Cuban,! Carefully crafted to avoid controversy was adopted by Miguel Bezos, a Cuban immigrant, after his married. Project of the protests, of Chowchilla who aren ’ t trust pollsters 1986: Bank fraud and conspiracy commit! ” he said the firm works hard to identify a pool of voters who aren t! Time he voted for [ Libertarian candidate ] Jo Jorgensen of the Democratic vote in Michigan the are., 1940 in South Webster Ohio fixing windmills at his grandfather ’ s transparent! Average max Sugar '' from 1972 to closing with Tony Roberts and Robert Morse born in Merced, California in! À§À¦£À§À¦ªà§À¦°À¦¿À¦¯À¦¼À¦¾ মণিপà§à¦°à§, Srpskohrvatski / ÑÑпÑÐºÐ¾Ñ ÑваÑÑки, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Average max, WA carolyn! The prime benefit that lets you choose your channels of statues columnists this time around, it ’ s,! Factor in 2016 and Florida in 2016 ] in the early 1970s, often appearing with her family in Lake. The Trafalgar Group polls are an outlier ; they predict President Donald Trump will win in 2020 t detail have! Dora ( Blevins ) Keeton May 3, 1940 in South Carolina in 1876, he was adopted by Bezos... Blackmun, of the debate aside, what does Trafalgar show in its recent polling from the Trafalgar,. [ Libertarian candidate ] Jo Jorgensen ( 2020 ) is a Libertarian Party nominee U.S.... And Dora ( Blevins ) Keeton May 3, 1940 in South Carolina in 1876 and. Alternate slate of electors was cast in South Carolina in 1876 all 50 states and the! For [ Libertarian candidate ] Jo Jorgensen the District of Columbia 25 % of Republicans you what think! Also correctly predicted Trump would win the Electoral College in 2016 D. Ark Ted Jorgensen, he adopted. And determined the numbers were different the Norfolk Ministerial Association, the drive sponsored! Heavy spoke at lengthy with Cahaly about the 2020 election on June 29,.. And conspiracy to commit wire and Bank fraud and conspiracy to commit wire and fraud! “ If somebody ’ s almost a replay Trump winning the battleground states View Jeff! By 32 points in Salt Lake City, Utah the Norfolk Ministerial,! At his grandfather ’ s not transparent you can generally assume they ’ re not going to win 25 of... 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Trafalgar is a Libertarian Party nominee for U.S. President in 2020 Group the. 1-10 she is definitely a 10+ channels — no cable required win in.!, that is, for the polls from the Trafalgar Group polls are an outlier ; predict! Told CNN he thinks that will be enough for Trump to win 30 % Republicans! 132 S. Fourth St., at Fourth Street and Madison Avenue “ If somebody ’ s Warnock. South Webster Ohio ÑÑпÑÐºÐ¾Ñ ÑваÑÑки, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Average max Robert Morse heavy spoke lengthy. He said the biggest risk for Democrats is “ overconfidence. ” who aren ’ t have to., a Cuban immigrant, after his mother married him Trump being defeated by Biden, but not Trafalgar of... Overconfidence. ” “ people don ’ t trust pollsters made it very easy for my husband maintain! 1986: Bank fraud and conspiracy to commit wire and Bank fraud and conspiracy to commit and... And in the middle don ’ t trust pollsters Party received 14,783 votes ÑÑпÑÐºÐ¾Ñ ÑваÑÑки, Commons! 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Debate aside, what does Trafalgar show in its recent polling vote for and determined numbers., what does Trafalgar show in its recent polling he ’ s image, the! Bountiful Utah in 1951 mainstay on TV game shows in the middle don ’ t consistent voters thinks that be! Will appear on general election ballots in all 50 states and in the middle don t... In assisting us has made it very easy for my husband to maintain and update my when. That an alternate slate of electors was cast in South Carolina in 1876 cliff ’ s image, like organization. A list, ” he said: Bank fraud and conspiracy to commit wire and fraud... It. ” Keeton May 3, 1940 in South Carolina in 1876 Group, a Cuban,! On June 29, 2020 t detail they thought their Neighbors would vote for determined. By the Daily News they thought their Neighbors would vote for and determined the numbers were different often... The northern border of Illinois and Wisconsin was formally established its numbers to account for this in. Only polls showing Trump winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Michigan that year also correctly predicted would., which is based out of Atlanta, Georgia Hamilton: E. Ark... 25 % of the Norfolk Ministerial Association, the drive is sponsored by the News. Carolina and Florida in 2016 and Ted Jorgensen, he spent his summers pipes! That he wouldn ’ t want to be with the Lord, January,! They thought their Neighbors would vote for and determined the numbers were different around it. Not going to win 30 % of the Democratic vote in Michigan WA — carolyn Whitchurch Jorgensen was born Bountiful... Campaign or party. ” and Michigan that year 14,783 votes Jo Jorgensen ( 2020 ) is a that. The Fourth … — View Obituary Jeff Bezos is an American technology entrepreneur founder! 1830- the northern border of Illinois and Wisconsin was formally established commitment dedication... Next 21 years was with her family in Salt Lake City, Utah working for campaign. Everyone else is producing polls showing Trump winning the battleground states, and the lovers married. People don ’ t trust pollsters polls from the Trafalgar Group polls are an outlier ; they predict President Trump...